Road Evaluations and Economic Analysis: Moldova

Status: Ongoing

IDG is conducting an evaluation to understand the impact of the MCC-funded Moldova Road Rehabilitation Project (RRP) on Moldova’s economic growth and poverty alleviation. The RRP aimed to 1) lower vehicle operating costs, 2) reduce productivity losses resulting from poor road conditions, and 3) decrease road accidents in Moldova. Under the RRP, MCC rehabilitated a 96km section of the M2/R7 road, from Sarateni to Soroca by the Ukrainian border. The evaluation is mainly three-fold and interwoven of an economic analysis and performance evaluations of road maintenance, road usage pattern, and transport market structure.

Prior to drafting the Evaluation Design Report (EDR), the evaluation team  assessed the RRP’s program logic and provided recommendations for improvement. In lieu of using aerial photography, IDG uses satellite imagery to overlay the data collected while using a video of the road for verifying the road surface conditions.

Region

  • Europe and Eurasia

Country / Countries

  • Moldova
Europe and Eurasia

Similar to some of the other road evaluations, the evaluation methods for the project are:

  • Project design and implementation: Review the initial design and the implementation process to inform the evaluation regarding how the activity was implemented.
  • Engineering analysis and economic model: Conduct a cost-benefit analysis and estimate the economic rate of return (ERR) and net present value (NPV) using Highway Development and Management (HDM-4) or Roads Economic Decision (RED).
  • Maintenance: Update the road maintenance assumptions and understand the organizational and political economy factors of road maintenance practices.
  • Road usage patterns: Identify change in road usage patterns by analyzing expanded origin-destination (O-D) survey data before and after MCC investment.
  • Transportation market structure: Analyze the market structure to understand how road improvements cost savings are passed onto transport consumers.

Areas of Expertise

Public Financial Management

IDG is conducting a cost-benefit analysis of MCC’s investment in the M2/M7 Roads from Sarateni to Soroca allowing MCC to compare the return on road investments consistently across countries over time and to help MCC in designing road investment projects in the future.

Cost-benefit Analysis (CBA)

Under Evaluation Area 1, IDG is conducting a cost-benefit analysis of MCC’s investment in the M2/M7 to ascertain the Economic Rate of Return (ERR) by using the World Bank software for road management called HDM-4.

Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning

IDG is conducting an independent performance evaluation of MCC’s M2/M7 Road Project in Moldova seven years after the road completion. This performance evaluation adopts a mixed-methods approach with quantitative and qualitative data collection. Key informant interviews were conducted with road maintenance stakeholders and transportation market stakeholders. Primary data collection is also collected in the process which includes a manual traffic count, an origin-destination survey, an axle load survey, a public transportation user survey, a vehicle operating costs survey, roadside establishment interviews, and a road roughness study.

Knowledge Management and Learning

To maximize learning from the evaluation, IDG is preparing a briefing note based on the evaluation findings report. In addition to the presentations, the brief aims at targeting decision-makers within MCC and the Moldovan government and informing their decisions on future investments.

  • Project Status: Ongoing
  • Location: Moldova