Roads Evaluations and Economic Analysis: Philippines

Status: Ongoing

On September 15, 2019, the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) issued a contract to IDG to conduct an Economic Analysis and Independent Evaluation Services in support of the Philippines Secondary National Roads Development Project (SNRDP). The SNRDP aimed at reconstructing and rehabilitating 220km of the Samar road crossing the provinces of Samar and Eastern Samar. The evaluation, designed to understand the impact of the MCC-funded SNRDP on the Philippines’ economic growth, is an independent performance evaluation.

Region

  • Asia

Country / Countries

  • Philippines
Asia

The evaluation is comprised of five Evaluation Areas:

  • Project design and implementation (EA 0): Review the initial design and the implementation process to inform the evaluation regarding how the project was implemented.
  • Engineering analysis and economic model (EA 1): Conduct a cost-benefit analysis and estimate the economic rate of return (ERR) and net present value (NPV) using Highway Development and Management (HDM-4).
  • Maintenance (EA 2): Update the road maintenance assumptions and understand the organizational factors of road maintenance practices and the effect of MCC’s efforts to improve the practices.
  • Road usage patterns (EA 3): Identify changes in road usage patterns by analyzing expanded origin-destination (O-D) survey data.
  • Transportation market structure (EA 4): Analyze the market structure to understand whether road improvements cost savings are passed onto transport consumers.

IDG is conducting an independent performance evaluation of MCC’s SNRDP six years after the road improvement. This performance evaluation uses a mixed-methods approach with both quantitative and qualitative data collection. IDG collected primary data collection includes a manual traffic count, an origin-destination survey, an axle load survey, a public transport user survey, a vehicle operating costs survey, a road roughness study, a travel time study, and a road condition study. Additionally, key informant interviews are conducted with road maintenance sector stakeholders and transportation market stakeholders.

Areas of Expertise

Public Financial Management

IDG conducts a cost-benefit analysis of MCC’s investment in the SNRDP allowing MCC to compare the return on road investments consistently across countries and over time within them. The evaluation is designed to better inform future road investment decisions for MCC.

Cost-benefit Analysis (CBA)

IDG is conducting a cost-benefit analysis of MCC’s investment in the SNRDP to model the Economic Rate of Return (ERR) on using Highway Development and Management (HDM-4), a software system developed by the World Bank for road management.

Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning

IDG is conducting an independent performance evaluation of MCC’s SNRDP in the Philippines six years after the road improvement. This performance evaluation uses a mixed-methods approach with both quantitative and qualitative data collection. IDG collected primary data on a manual traffic count, various road and transit  surveys,   and multiple road condition studies. Additionally, IDG conducted key informant interviews with road maintenance sector stakeholders and transportation market stakeholders.

Knowledge Management and Learning

To maximize learning from the evaluation, IDG prepared a briefing note based on the evaluation findings report. In addition to the presentations, the brief aimed to target decision-makers within MCC and the Philippines government and informing their decisions on future investments.